The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) continues to go back and forth monthly. However, the index did post a bullish outside range during May before closing higher for the month, indicating the major (long-term) trend may be up again. Theoretical Positions: The potential for a major uptrend would suggest holding cash HRW wheat as harvested this summer. However, we have to be mindful of a potential breakdown given the higher monthly close was not convincing.
The Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) extended its major downtrend to a low of $5.1154 during May. Theoretical Positions: None at this time. Though the index is sharply oversold, given the bearish Chicago (SRW) futures spreads it is possible the index could struggle to find buying interest.
The Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) remains in a major 3-wave downtrend as it posted a new low of $7.1558 during May. Theoretical Positions: None at this time.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) extended its major 3-wave downtrend to a low of $5.88 during May. Monthly stochastics are in single digits, possibly limiting downside potential. Theoretical Positions: None at this time. Those wanting to go long will wait for a clear reversal pattern.
