Cash Corn: The Barchart National Corn Price Index moved to a new 4-week high last week, confirming a new secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend. This goes along with the major (long-term) uptrend that was confirmed on the NCPI’s monthly chart at the end of May.

Theoretical Positions:

  • End Users may have originally covered 2023 needs near $6.2825 from the first week of May.
  • If not, long-term needs were covered at the end of May, also with the NCPI near $6.2825.
  • Additional cash needs might’ve been added when the NCPI hit a new 4-week high beyond $6.3950.

New-Crop Futures: The Dec23 contract also hit a new 4-week high, also confirming a new secondary uptrend on its weekly chart. The upside target area is between $$5.6250 and $5.7950.

Theoretical Positions (New):

  • 2023 Production
    • 100% covered at roughly $6.30
    • Short-dated new-crop July $5.60 calls were bought for about 9.0 cents.
  • 2024 Production
    • 100% covered at roughly $5.70

Theoretical Positions (from November 12, 2022)

  • Hedgers
    • The balance of 2022 production could’ve been sold on a stop below Dec22 4-week low of $6.74
      • Expected 2023 production could also have a solid percent sold near $6.4750, the close the week of May 2
      • Additional sales could’ve been made the week of June 13 near $6.45
      • Or the week of June 20 near $6.15
      • 50% to 75% at approximately $6.35
  • Expected 2023 production could also have a solid percent sold near $6.4750, the close the week of May 2
      • Additional sales could’ve been made the week of June 13 near $6.45
      • Or the week of June 20 near $6.15
      • 50% to 75% at approximately $6.35
    • The balance of expected 2023 production might’ve been priced with a stop below the 4-week low of $6.1525 ($6.15)
      • The long-term target for the Dec23 issue, based on the continuous monthly chart for Dec corn, is near $5.40
      • Expected 2024 production could have 50% to 75% priced near $5.75
      • From the week of May 9
      • or the week of June 13
  • Expected 2024 production could have 50% to 75% priced near $5.75
      • From the week of May 9
      • or the week of June 13
    • The balance of 2024 production could be price with a stop below Dec24 4-week low of $5.59