I waited until the official end of May before posting my monthly analysis of currencies since markets outside the US were open, and trade in currencies never takes a day off. When May came to a close the Brazilian real was posting a new monthly high of 0.19228, the new 4-month high but just below the previous 4-month high of 0.19507 from January 2021. The first day of June has already seen the real trade through the May high (dotted green line), a bullish long-term momentum indicator, setting the next target at the December 2020 peak of 0.19925 (dashed green line). Beyond this is the June 2020 peak of 0.20739. While all indications are the real should continue to strengthen, a bullish factor for the US soybean industry, monthly stochastics have quickly moved toward the overbought level of 80%. Still, there looks to be room for the real to move higher before an overbought situation becomes an issue.
