The last couple months have seen the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extend the market’s major (long-term) uptrend, first to a high of $3.99 during October before pulling back to close at $3.75 then $4.11 during November before closing at $4.06. The move in November saw monthly stochastics climb well above the overbought level of 80%, setting the stage for a potential bearish crossover that would signal a downturn. However, while I’m concern we could see cash corn come under pressure, with the end of November calculation putting the NCPI in the upper 3% of its price distribution dating back through the 2014-2015 marketing year (weekly closes only), if we see a selloff it would look to be Wave 4 of a 5-wave uptrend pattern. Given the continued bullishness of corn’s fundamentals, with national average basis running near its previous 4-year high for this week of 20 cents under March futures, I’m expecting Wave 4 to bottom out near $3.58. This price marks the 38.2% retracement level of the first three waves of the trend from $2.73 (April 2020) through the November high of $4.11.