The cog train known as December corn (for further discussion, see the post in Charts from October 21, 2020) continued to chug along during February, hitting a high of $4.79. This took out the previous high of $4.73 posted by the 2019 contract during June 2019. February also saw the 2021 contract close outside the previous sideways range between roughly $3.18 (October 2014 to $4.54 (July 2015). Note this range was $1.36, and adding this to the breakout point puts the next upside target near $5.90 (dashed blue line). Before were get all bulled up, though, we need to keep a couple things in mind:
- Monthly stochastics are already well above the overbought level of 80% after posting a bearish crossover at the end of January. While not a reversal pattern, this is considered an indicator the market could roll into a new major (long-term) downtrend over the coming months.
- The previous bearish crossover occurred at the end of May 2018
- The most recent bullish crossover occurred at the end of June 2020
- There is another old high to contend with, $5.17 from April 2014.
As I talked about in my latest Weekly Column, new-crop 2021-2022 corn remains fundamentally bullish, as indicated by the weak carry in the Dec 2021-to-July 2022 forward curve. Until this changes the Dec contract(s) should continue to find plenty of buying interest.