Gold (Cash Index): The cash index (GCY00) continued to consolidate during July. This was the third consecutive month of consolidation, so I’m going to call the major (long-term) trend sideways, for now. The Index closed at $3,290.40, down $12.68 for the month, basically erasing the June gain of $12.85. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investment traders bought near the October 2023 close of $1,983.91 as previous short positions were stopped out. There have been numerous buys, mostly on new 4-month highs, since the key bullish reversal completed during November 2022. For those arguing gold has reached a technical top: The market is not a technical trade at this point but rather a fundamental safe-haven market against increased global uncertainty.
Silver (Cash Index): The cash index (SIY00) extended its major uptrend to a high of $39.5144 during June before closing at $36.7238, up $0.6259 for the month. Theoretical Positions: Traders might’ve gone long as a new 4-month high ($25.7691) was posted during April 2024. If so, sell stops might’ve been triggered below the previous 4-month low of $28.7926 during April 2025, resulting in a gain of $3.02353 (11.7%). New buy orders might’ve been triggered above the previous 4-month high of $34.5382 during June. We need to be careful with silver heading into August. While it did not complete a bearish reversal pattern, it did finish July well off its monthly high, possibly leading to follow-through selling in early August.
Copper (Cash Index): The copper index completed one of the more volatile reversal patterns I’ve seen in quite some time. After posting a new all-time high of $5.8015 the index fell to a low of $4.3885 as July came to an end and closet at that mark, down $0.6485 (12.9%) for the month. Given copper is viewed as an economic indicator market, what does this tell us about the US economy, particularly when combined with the move to an uptrend by the US dollar index indicating higher interest rates could be coming? Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors moved to the sidelines late in July, liquidation long positions and adding to the pressure in the market to close out the month.
