Monthly Analysis: Cash Soybeans

2022-03-01T07:23:47-06:00March 1st, 2022|Monthly|

The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) certainly looks to have established a major (long-term) double-top on its monthly chart during February. Over the course of the month it posted a high of $16.7268, just short of the previous high of $16.766 before finishing the month at $15.8769. Also note the NSPI left a gap at the beginning of the month between its opening low of $14.5433 and the January high of $14.4664. This could be argued either way:

  • Market bears
    • This looks to be an exhaustion gap meaning buying interest starts to wane
  • Market bulls
    • This is a breakaway gap, meaning buying interest is just getting rolling

Given the continued bullishness of national average basis and the inverted old-crop May-July futures spread, the more logical conclusion is the cash market remains bullish.

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