The cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) certainly looks to have established a major (long-term) double-top on its monthly chart during February. Over the course of the month it posted a high of $16.7268, just short of the previous high of $16.766 before finishing the month at $15.8769. Also note the NSPI left a gap at the beginning of the month between its opening low of $14.5433 and the January high of $14.4664. This could be argued either way:
- Market bears
- This looks to be an exhaustion gap meaning buying interest starts to wane
- Market bulls
- This is a breakaway gap, meaning buying interest is just getting rolling
Given the continued bullishness of national average basis and the inverted old-crop May-July futures spread, the more logical conclusion is the cash market remains bullish.