The continuous monthly chart for November soybean futures only is interesting as it gives both market bulls and market bears ammunition to continue their argument:
- Bears
- The 2022 contract was not able to hold its February spike, closing the month back below the previous high of $14.80.
- This means the move was nothing more than Wave B of the major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend
- and established a double-top pattern on the continuous monthly chart.
- Given this, look for November futures to come under pressure over the coming months.
- The 2022 contract was not able to hold its February spike, closing the month back below the previous high of $14.80.
- Bulls
- The 2022 contract extended its major uptrend to $15.55
- This is the highest a November soybean contract has been priced since November 2012
- The move is supported by long-term bullish fundamentals, as indicated by inverted new-crop futures spreads.
- Regardless of if US plants more soybeans, the market is indicating it won’t be enough to loosen the tighten global supply and demand situation.
- The 2022 contract extended its major uptrend to $15.55
My take: I’d rather be long than short, for now. That being said, producers could certainly make small forward sales as of expected 2022 production while keeping plenty of powder dry for later.
