Monthly Analysis: Corn

Corn Cash Index: The National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $3.50 during August before closing the month at $3.6850, down 6.0 cents for the month. While the Index did not compete a bullish reversal on its monthly chart, the futures market did. This could lead to a rally in cash corn once the US 2024 harvest reaches is 50% done mark. Theoretical Positions: Continue to buy cash corn as needed only. End users could extend their coverage based on the NCI’s secondary (intermediate-term) trend turning up on its weekly chart. Producers could lift short hedges and hold 2024 bushels in on-fam storage.

December Corn: Dec24 completed a bullish spike reversal on the continuous monthly chart, confirming a move to a major (long-term) uptrend, bringing to an end the previous downtrend that began at the end of May 2022.

Theoretical Positions:

• Hedgers:
  • See Weekly Analysis: Grains (both Futures and Cash)
• Traders:
  • Short Dec24 futures positions could be covered near last Friday’s close of $4.01.
  • Traders may have sold Dec24 $4.00 put options at 20.0 cents
    • If so, Dec25 futures would be bought when
      • The Dec24 options expire on November 22
      • Or the short options are bought back
      • Or if Dec24 rallies beyond $4.20
        • and the short put options are bought back