Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) still looks to be in a major (long-term) uptrend despite a second consecutive lower monthly close at the end of November. Based on the idea of a Benjamin Franklin Fish Analogy (Markets start to stink after 3 days/weeks/months of moving against its trend) the fund could move lower again during December before finding renewed buying interest. The key will be holding above the August 2024 low of $17.02. That month saw CORN complete a bullish spike reversal. Theoretical Positions: CORN could’ve been bought near the August settlement of $17.70 with a stop below the August low of $17.02.
December Corn: With Dec24 in delivery at the end of November and positions rolled to Dec25, the market remains in a major uptrend. Dec24 posted a new 4-month high of $4.3475 before first notice day, confirming the uptrend without the benefit of a roll to Dec25 at a carry. (The Dec24-Dec25 spread closed November at a carry of 8.5 cents.)
Theoretical Positions:
- Hedgers:
- See Weekly Analysis: Grains (both Futures and Cash)
- Traders:
- Short Dec24 futures positions could’ve been covered near the August close of $4.01.
- And long positions established at the same price
- These long positions could’ve been rolled to Dec25 at a carry of 25.5 cents on Monday, October 28
- Dec24 was at (roughly) $4.1325
- Dec25 was at (roughly) $4.3875 (new long position)
- Dec25 closed November at $4.3150
- Traders may have sold Dec24 $4.00 put options at 20.0 cents
- If so
- then these options would’ve been bought back at 2 2/8 cents (September 30)
- and long futures positions established in Dec24 on a stop at $4.2025
- creating a long futures position of $4.0250
- With these positions rolled to Dec25 on Monday, October 28 (see above)
- If so
- Short Dec24 futures positions could’ve been covered near the August close of $4.01.
Corn Cash Index: The National Corn Index (NCI, national average cash price) looks to be in the early stages of a major uptrend, posting a new high 4-month close at the end of November. The NCI settled at $4.0677 as compared to the old 4-month high monthly close of $3.9262 from September. The next upside target is the monthly close of $4.2579 from May 2024. Theoretical Positions: End users could’ve extend their coverage based on the NCI’s secondary (intermediate-term) uptrend and the major uptrend in futures.
