Gold (Cash Index): The cash index (GCY00) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $2,481.63 during July before closing at $2,447.08, up $120.57 for the month. Monthly stochastics remain above the overbought level of 80% indicating the trend could soon turn down. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investment traders bought near the October 2023 close of $1,983.91 as previous short positions were stopped out.
Silver (Cash Index): The cash index (SIY00) still looks to be in a major uptrend. Theoretical Positions: Traders might’ve gone long as a new 4-month high ($25.7691) was posted during April. Based on the possible bearish 2-month reversal during May and June, traders might’ve liquidated longs near the June close of $29.1418 for a gain of roughly $3.3727. If still holding longs, the previous 4-month low is down at $24.8164.
Copper (Cash Index): The cash index (HGY00) remained in a major uptrend at the end of July. The index fell to a low of $4.0650 during July, a mark that becomes the previous 4-month heading into August. For the record, the index has already hit a low of $4.0505, taking out its previous 4-month low. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investment traders bought as the new 4-month high was posted during December, and again as the contract took out its 4-month high of $3.9410 during March. Additional longs may have been added during April as the index hit another new 4-month high beyond $4.1195. If so, the average position would be near $3.9850. It’s possible traders liquidated longs at May’s close of $4.6150, expecting a continued selloff during June. If so, this would’ve locked in a gain of roughly $0.63. Otherwise, longs would be liquidated on a break of the previous 4-month low in early August.
