Gold (Cash Index): The cash index (GCY00) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $2,6,84.45 during August before closing at $2,634.70, up $131.33 for the month. Monthly stochastics remain above the overbought level of 80%. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investment traders bought near the October 2023 close of $1,983.91 as previous short positions were stopped out. Sell stops would be placed below the previous 4-month low of $2,287.64 (June 2024).
Silver (Cash Index): The cash index (SIY00) remains in a major uptrend. Theoretical Positions: Traders might’ve gone long as a new 4-month high ($25.7691) was posted during April. Based on the possible bearish 2-month reversal during May and June, traders might’ve liquidated longs near the June close of $29.1418 for a gain of roughly $3.3727. If still holding longs, the previous 4-month low is down at $26.5293 (August 2024).
Copper (Cash Index): Despite the September rally, the cash index (HGY00) confirmed a major downtrend as it fell to a new 4-month low during August, taking out the previous mark of $4.0495 before closing at $4.15. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investment traders bought as the new 4-month high was posted during December, and again as the contract took out its 4-month high of $3.9410 during March. Additional longs may have been added during April as the index hit another new 4-month high beyond $4.1195. If so, the average position would’ve been near $3.9850. It’s then possible traders liquidated longs at May’s close of $4.6150, expecting a continued selloff during June. If so, this would’ve locked in a gain of roughly $0.63. Otherwise, longs would be liquidated on a break of the previous 4-month low in early August.
