Soybean Cash Index: The Soybean Price Index (ISY00, national average cash price) looks to have completed a possible bullish 2-month reversal during March. If so, then the major (long-term) trend would be considered up. Confirmation of this would be a move to a new 4-month high beyond the May mark of $11.8683 during June. Theoretical Positions: Remaining cash bushels from the 2023 harvest would’ve been sold on sell stops below the October low of $11.8872. End users could extend their cash coverage based on the slowly building major uptrend . If long-term long positions were established near the March settlement of $11.34, sell stops would be below the February low of $10.78. Keep in mind the long-term downside target for the NSI on its monthly close-only chart near $10.25.
November Soybeans: The November 2024 contract also looks to be in a major uptrend based on having completed a bullish 2-month reversal at the end of March. If so, then the February low of $11.2275 would be considered the end of the previous 8-wave cycle (5 waves up, 3 waves down). Confirmation of the major uptrend would be a move to a new 4-month high beyond the May mark of $12.3050. Theoretical Positions: If traders went long Nov24 in early April near the March settlement of $11.8625, sell stops would be placed below the February low of $11.2275. Buy stops for additional longs would be above the May high of $12.3050.
The Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) looks to be in a major uptrend based on the bullish 2-month reversal completed at the end of March 2024. Theoretical Positions: If investors reestablished long positions near the March settlement of $25.21 based on a bullish 2-month reversal, sell stops would be below the February low of $23.79.
