The HRW Wheat Price Index (IHY00, national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $6.7805 during May. If the index sees a seasonal selloff during summer harvest, support could be found near the December 2023 high of $6.0728. Theoretical Positions: While 2023 cash bushels have likely been sold, traders could’ve gone long the market near the March settlement of $5.3819 based on the latest bullish spike reversal. If so, sell stops would be placed below the March low of $5.0960.
The SRW Wheat Price Index (IWY00) remains in a major 5-wave uptrend, with Wave 3 extending to a high of $6.4166 during May. While a Wave 4 selloff could be seen during the summer harvest months, support would be pegged near the Wave 1 high of $5.6051 (December 2023). Theoretical Positions: All 2023 cash bushels should be sold. Traders might’ve bought the market near the November settlement of $5.20 with longs added near the March settlement of $5.0579. This put the average position near $5.13, with sell stops below the March 2024 low near $4.74.
The HRS Wheat Price Index (IPY00) extended its major uptrend to a high of $7.2007 during May, the highest the index has been since August 2023. Theoretical Positions: Cash bushels were sold at harvest. Those wanting to be long the market could do so near the April settlement of $6.80, putting sell stops below the March low of $6.07.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) extended its major uptrend to a high of $56.48 during May. Theoretical Positions: Traders could’ve bought WEAT near the March close of $5.41 with sell stops below the March low of $5.02. Additional longs may have been added at the new 4-month high beyond $5.97. If so, the average long position would be near $5.69 with sell stops below the March 2024 low of $5.02.
