The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. The HWPI is expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $7.6159 (August 2022) with the next downside target at $7.1520. However, monthly stochastics are already in oversold territory below 20% indicating a deep extension of Wave C (third wave) may not occur. Theoretical Positions: Possibly short from the October settlement of $9.3258 based on a bearish spike reversal peaking Wave B. These positions will be covered if a bullish reversal pattern is completed.
The Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) extended its major downtrend to a low of $6.3052 during February. Theoretical Positions: None at this time.
The Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) remains in a major 3-wave downtrend with the next target near $7.6931. This would take out the Wave A low of $7.8359 from August 2022, completing the 3-wave pattern. Theoretical Positions: Holding Short positions from the October settlement of $9.0518. The next downside target is near $7.6931.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) remains in a major downtrend, though monthly stochastics are well below the oversold level of 20% and in position for a possible bullish crossover. This would signal the major trend should soon turn up. WEAT has easily taken out its Wave A low of $7.63 meaning it could complete a bullish reversal pattern starting with March 2023. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible long positions were sold during the spring of 2022. New longs could be established when a bullish reversal pattern is completed.