The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) remains in a major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend. Wave C (third wave) is expected to take out the Wave A (first wave) low of $7.6159 from August. The next downside target is $7.1520. Monthly stochastics remain bearish above the oversold level of 20% indicating the HWPI has time and space to move lower. Theoretical Positions: Possibly short from the October settlement of $9.3258 based on a bearish spike reversal peaking Wave B.
The Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) is also in a major (long-term) downtrend with the October high near $8.95 looking like it could be the peak of Wave B (second wave) of the 3-wave pattern. Note monthly stochastics have moved below the oversold level of 20%, possibly limiting how far Wave C extends. Still, the Wave A low of $7.6655 from August should be taken out with the next downside target near $5.6570. I have my doubts about the market reaching that level. Theoretical Positions: Possibly short from the October settlement of $8.1503 based on a bearish spike reversal peaking Wave B.
The Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) is also in a major 3-wave downtrend with the Wave C downside target near $7.6930. Monthly stochastics are already at or near the oversold level of 20%, possibly limiting an extension of Wave C. Theoretical Positions: Possibly short from the October settlement of $9.0518 based on a bearish spike reversal peaking Wave B.
