Boxed beef markets were under pressure as August came to and end.
- Choice was reportedly priced at $258.34
- Down $10.90 for the month
- Down $32.06 from the January high monthly close of $290.40
- and the lowest monthly close since February’s $257.51
- Select was reportedly priced at $237.74
- Down $4.51 for the month
- Down $45.53 from the January high monthly close of $283.27
- and the lowest monthly close since February 2021 at $229.73
A couple things to take note of:
- If boxed beef is trending down, then one of the assumptions is demand is likely slowing
- Some of this could be seasonal, with grilling season coming to an end
- It could also be economic, an indicator inflation across the board is decreasing discretionary income
- Bearish futures spreads continue to indicate large supplies of cattle on hand
- With spreads out through the June-August still sitting in bearish territory
- And if supplies are large and demand is slowing
- That is a bearish fundamental situation for live cattle
- Meaning cash and futures prices should start to come down
- and noncommercial traders start to liquidate some of the recent additions to their net-long futures position
