In what will become a familiar discussion in the grain and oilseed complex, the cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Price Index (HSPI, weighed national average cash price) posted a bearish spike reversal on its monthly chart during May. This indicates the major (long-term) trend had turned down, with a target area between $6.26 and $5.4450, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous major uptrend from $4.1280 (September 2019) through the May 2021 high of $7.5769. The HSPI was calculated at $6.75 to close out the month. The weekly chart shows the HSPI posted a bullish outside week, meaning follow-through buying could be seen with the target area between $6.87 and $7.0350. Fundamentally the market remains bullish, as indicated by the weak carry in Minneapolis (HRS) wheat futures forward curve.
