The cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Index (SWPI, weighted national average cash price) posted a bearish spike reversal on its monthly chart during May, indicating the major (long-term) trend has turned down. The target area is between roughly $5.82 and $4.83, prices marking the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous major uptrend from $3.2232 (August 2016) through the May 2021 high of $7.4196. Given the neutral-to-bullish fundamentals of the Chicago (SRW) futures market, indicated by the weak carry in its forward curve, the 50% retracement level new $5.32 could hold the selloff until fundamentals change. The SWPI closed May priced at $6.3893.
