Hard Red Winter Wheat: Same as the First

The cmdty Hard Red Winter Wheat National Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) posted a bearish spike reversal on its monthly chart during May, indicating the major (long-term) trend has turned down. The May low of $5.6311 was a test of the initial price target near $5.72, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.4047 (September 2019) through the May 2021 high $7.1497. The next target is the 50% retracement level near $5.28, just above the previous 4-month low of $5.2129 (dashed red line). Fundamentally the market is neutral-to-bearish, as indicated by the stronger carry in the forward curve of the Kansas City (HRW) wheat futures market. This could lead to an extended selloff to the 61.8% retracement level near $4.8350.