The major (long-term) uptrend of the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) looks to have come to an end during May as the NSPI posted a bearish spike reversal. After posting a high of $16.7688 the NSPI fell to a low of $14.7712 before finishing the month at $15.1587, below the April settlement of $15.46. The reversal pattern established during may coincided with another bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%, also a signal the major trend is set to turn down. The downside target area is between $13.0625 and $10.7740, prices market the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels of the previous major uptrend from $7.0697 (May 2019) through the May 2021 high. However, given the continued bullishness of the soybean futures market’s forward curve, inverted through at least the November 2024 contract, the 50% retracement level near $11.92 could hold the downtrend. Initial support is at the 4-month low of $12.9758.
