There is always one market that isn’t like all the rest, and in the case of the grain and oilseed complex the contract is November soybeans. the continuous monthly chart for the November contract shows the 2021 issue posted a new high for the ongoing major (long-term) uptrend of $14.61 before falling back to close at $13.7275. This was enough for monthly stochastics to establish a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80% at the end of the month, a signal the major trend is set to turn down. However, the difference between November soybeans and nearly every other monthly chart for grain and oilseeds is that it still closed higher for the month, up 33 cents from April’s close of $13.3975. This makes sense given the market’s long-term bullish fundamentals, indicated by its inverted forward curve. What we know at the end of May is November soybeans are in position to establish a new major downtrend, but have not confirmed a turn to a new trend yet. What shape that confirmation comes in is hard to guess at this time, though for now I would expect to see the contract start to consolidate below the May 2021 high.
