The cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a new 4-month low of $5.7059 during August. However, given the monthly settlement of $5.7993 there was a strong likelihood this would quickly be taken out in September, and it was as Wednesday’s NCPI calculation came in at $5.1586. The next downside target is near $5.11, the 50% retracement level of the previous major uptrend from $2.7265 (April 2020) through the May 2021 high of $7.4931. Note the latter was part of a bearish spike reversal pattern the confirmed a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%, first at the end of January then in conjunction with the reversal pattern during May. Given monthly stochasitcs remain well above the oversold 20% mark, there is plenty of time and space for the NCPI to move lower. Fundamentally the market remains bullish, as indicated by strong national average basis heading into September.