Unlike the continuous monthly chart for November soybeans only, this monthly chart for the cmdty National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, weighted national average cash price) did officially post a bearish reversal during May. This coincided with a bearish crossover by monthly stochastics above the overbought level of 80%, meaning a new major (long-term) downtrend was both signaled and confirmed at the same time. August saw the NSPI fall through its initial downside target of $13.0625, the 38.2% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $7.0697 (May 2019) through the May 2021 high of $16.7668. Additionally, the August low of $12.5252 was a new 4-month low, the second consecutive month the major downtrend took out support. Monthly stochastics remain well above the oversold level of 20% meaning there is still plenty of time and space for the NSPI to move lower, with the next downside target at the 50% retracement level of $11.9183. Soybeans in general remain fundamentally bullish, though we need to keep an eye on national average basis.
