As with corn, to study the long-term trend of cash soybeans I’m using an index with more history than the cmdty National Soybean Index I usually talk about. The monthly chart for this index shows the market extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high near $14.05 during March, finishing at its monthly high. This put it above the price target of $13.52, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous major downtrend from $17.4750 (August 2012) through the low near $7.12 (September 2018). If you look at this chart and squint your eyes just right, you can make out a familiar 5-wave uptrend pattern with the ongoing extended rally being Wave 5. Also note monthly stochastics are flatlining just below 100%, indicating a sharply overbought situation and indicating the cash index (intrinsic value of the market) could be getting top heavy. For clear signs of a potential top forming we need to keep an eye on our two most reliable fundamental reads: National average basis and futures spread. Both were still bullish at the end of March, though the May-July futures spread found itself in a solid downtrend heading into April. The key is, was, and always be basis, with the cmdty National Soybean Basis Index running at its strongest levels since the summer of 2015.