My monthly analysis of the key grain and oilseed markets will focus on the cmdty National Price Indexes (weighted national average cash prices). Recall from numerous previous discussions I view these as the intrinsic value of the individual markets meaning long-term monthly charts give us a good read on outlook.
Similar to soybeans, the cmdty National Corn Price Index (NCPI) is showing us a clear picture when it comes to trends. The major (long-term) trend remains down, based on the bearish spike reversal posted this past May. This led to a 50% retracement of its previous major uptrend from $2.7265 (April 2020) through the May 2021 high of $7.4931. October saw the NCPI post a low of $4.8613 before finishing the month at $5.4916, up 33.31 cents for the month and establishing a bullish spike reversal. This coincides with the secondary (intermediate-term) trend turning up on the NCPI’s weekly chart, with a target area between $6.1772 and $6.4878. Based on the NCPI’s seasonality, this secondary uptrend could last into early June 2022.
