I pulled the Cost of Carry tables for corn, soybeans, and the three wheat futures markets at the end of June.

(Green spreads are showing carry. Red spreads are inverted.)

Key Takeaways:

  • Kansas City (HRW) Wheat
    • The September-December spread closed at a carry of 9.0 cents and covering 36% calculated full commercial carry (cfcc).
      • This is just outside the bullish threshold of 33% cfcc or less
      • The end of May saw this same spread close at 9.0 cents carry and covering 33% cfcc.
    • The Sept22-to-May23 forward curve closed at a carry of 10.75 cents and covering 16%
      • As compared to the end of May’s close at an inverse of 7.0 cents
    • June saw light commercial selling in Kansas City HRW, not surprising given the bulk of the 2022 harvest occurred during the month.
      • The long-term fundamental picture remains bullish, though.
  • Chicago (SRW) Wheat
    • The September-December spread closed at a carry of 16.5 cents and covering a bearish 68% cfcc
      • The bearish threshold is 67% cfcc
      • The end of May saw this same spread close at 9.5 cents carry and covering 36% cfcc.
    • The Sept22-to-May23 forward curve closed at a carry of 31.75 cents and covering a neutral 49% cfcc
      • The previous month’s close was a carry of 5.0 cents and covering 7% cfcc
      • As with HRW, the commercial selling in June was likely tied to cash sold during the 2022 harvest.
  • Minneapolis (HRS) Wheat
    • The new-crop September-December spread closed at a carry of 13.25 cents and covering 42% cfcc
      • The end of May saw this same spread close at and inverse of 2.0 cents
      • This was a big move away from being bullish, a move made more interesting by the lack of planted acres across North Dakota and continued wet field conditions.
  • Soybeans
    • For what its worth (which isn’t much), the old-crop July-August futures spread closed at an inverse of $1.1450 cents
      • The end of May saw this same spread close at an inverse of 63.0 cents
      • Meaning the stocks-to-use situation continued to tighten during June
      • Yet increasing concern over a possible slowdown in demand as we moved into July
    • The August-September spread closed June at an inverse of 85.0 cents
    • New-crop November-January closed at a carry of 4.25 cents and covering 16% cfcc
      • as compared to the May close at a carry of 4.75 cent and 18% cfcc
    • The Nov22-to-July23 forward curve closed at an inverse of 12.75 cents
      • versus the previous month’s inverse of 3.0 cents
      • We could tell not as many acres were planted as expected, and commercial traders were still looking for small beginning stocks.
  • Corn
    • The July-September spread closed at an inverse of $1.15 cents
      • The end of May saw this same spread close at an inverse of 28.5 cents
      • Old-crop fundamentals grew more bullish as demand for tightening bushels held firm
      • versus the previous month’s close at a carry of 0.5 cent and covering 1% cfcc
      • Long-term fundamentals remain bullish
    • The new-crop Dec22-to-July23 forward curve closed at a carry of 7.75 cents and covering 11% cfcc
      • Just not as bullish as before
      • More acres planted
      • Rains across parts of the Plains and Midwest during June