The US dollar index ($DXY) confirmed a new major (long-term) uptrend by completing a bullish key reversal during March. Theoretical Positions: If still short heading into March, investors would’ve covered those positions and gone long near the monthly close of 99.96. Others will be looking for a test of the March low of 95.55 to go long.
The Euro (^EURUSD) fell to a new 4-month low during March, taking out the previous mark of 1.1469. Technically, this means the euro has moved into a major downtrend. Theoretical Positions: Investors are still long the euro, and likely added positions as it took out its previous high of 1.19186 during January. These positions may have been stopped out during March. If so, investors could be looking for an opportunity to get short on a recovery rally.
The euro/Canadian dollar (^EURCAD) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of 1.56133 during March before closing the month at 1.60753, down only 0.3% from the February settlement. Theoretical Positions: Short positions could’ve been established near the October 2025 settlement of 1.61659 with sell stops to establish additional positions below the December low of 1.60618.
The Canadian dollar (^CADUSD) remains in a major uptrend. However, follow-through pressure from the March selloff could be seen in early April. Theoretical Positions: Investors would be long the Canadian dollar from the close of February 2025 at roughly 0.69125, adding positions along the way as the loonie took out previous high marks, including January above the previous peak of 0.73854 from June 2025. The Canadian dollar closed March at 0.71865, down 2.0% for the month.
The Brazilian real (^BRLUSD) remains in a major uptrend despite the lower close to March at 0.19249, down 1.25% for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors might’ve gone long near the January 2025 settlement of 0.17188 based on a bullish 2-month reversal. Investors could be growing cautious given monthly stochastics are deep in overbought territory.
