As mentioned in Seasonal Analysis Monday morning, the December 2021 contract has extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of $4.93 in early April, despite monthly stochastics approaching 100% reflecting a sharply overbought situation. Still, the contract is chugging along with the next upside target the high of $5.17 from April 2014, posted by the 2014 contract. As I’ve discussed a number of times (most recently in Monday’s Seasonal Analysis), there is a loose correlation between the 2021 and 2014 contracts based on previous marketing year stocks-to-use. However, at the end of March my 2020-2021 calculation of available stocks-to-use moved past what we saw for ending stocks-to-use as the 2013-2014 marketing year came to a close, meaning the Dec 2021 issue could extend its rally beyond the 2014 peak. Based on Newsom’s Rule #6 (Fundamentals win in the end.), it will all come down to activity in futures spreads with both the Dec-March spread and Dec-to-July forward curve still covering a bullish level of calculated full commercial carry.