This analysis is based on long-term monthly charts. I have no idea how the various markets, particularly Brent and WTI Crude Oil, will react to the US military action in Iran that reportedly began the night/morning of February 27 to February 28.
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Brent crude (QA): The sot-month futures contract extended the January bullish breakout during February. The forward curve remains in backwardation indicating the long-term fundamental outlook is bullish. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February.
WTI crude oil (CL): The sot-month futures contract extended the January bullish breakout during February. The forward curve remains in backwardation indicating the long-term fundamental outlook is bullish. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible investors went long the market during January or February.
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): The market remains in a major sideways trend between $2.74 (high from June 2025) and $1.9338 (May 2025). However, the spot-month contract poked its head above the previous high during February, possibly triggering new buy orders. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors may have gone long during February.
RBOB gasoline (RB): The spot-month contract followed through on the bullish key reversal completed at the end of January, extending its new major uptrend to a high of $2.3075 before closing February at $2.2855, up 34.33 cents (17.7%) cents for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors could be long the market near the January settlement of $1.9422.
Natural Gas (NG): It could still be argued the spot-month contract posted a Wave 5 high during December 2025 as part of a key bearish reversal. If so, then the market would be considered in a major downtrend, from a technical point of view. Theoretical Positions: I would think investors would be on the sidelines, but it is hard to say.
