Brent crude (QA): I don’t see a clear pattern on the market’s long-term monthly chart. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines for now given the forward curve remains in backwardation. If long positions were established in June when the spot-month contract posted a new 4-month high beyond $77.53, sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of $58.41 (May 2025).
WTI crude oil (CL): I don’t see a clear pattern on the market’s long-term monthly chart. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines for now given the WTI forward curve remains in backwardation. If long positions were established in June when the spot-month contract posted a new 4-month high beyond $75.18, sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of $55.30 (May 2025).
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): The market continued to consolidate during August. Theoretical Positions: Investors could be on the sidelines. However, if long positions were established in June when the spot-month contract posted a new 4-month high beyond $2.5213, sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of $1.9338 (May 2025). The market’s forward curve remains in backwardation indicating a bullish supply and demand situation.
RBOB gasoline (RB): The market remains in a major sideways trend. Theoretical Positions: Investors would be on the sidelines.
Natural gas (NG) was giving no clear technical signs at the end of August, though the eyeball test tells us the market is in a major downtrend as the spot-month contract hit a new 4-month low of $2.622. Theoretical Positions: Traders might’ve gone long on the bullish breakout above $2.168 during May 2024. Additional long positions may have been established above the May high of $2.924 during June. Additional longs may have been added near the August close of $2.127 based on the spot-month contract completing a bullish spike reversal, indicating a Wave 2 low. Another set of long positions might’ve been added during February as the spot-month contract took auto the January high of $4.369. If so, then the average long position would be roughly $2.897. Sell stops would below the April low of $2.85 would’ve been triggered during August.
