The S&P 500 ($INX): The Index extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a new high of 6,920.34 during October before closing at 6,840.20, up 151.74 (2.3%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely still long, despite bearish technical patterns this past spring.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) extended its major uptrend to a high of 48.040.64 during October before closing at 47,562.87, up 1,164.98 (12.5%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely still long, despite bearish technical patterns this past spring.
The Nasdaq ($NASX) extended its major uptrend to a high of 24,019.99 during October before closing at 23,724.96, up 1,064.95 (4.7%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve bought back into high-tech stocks in late April.
The US 10-year T-note (ZN): I’m going to continue to call the major trend sideways. While the spot futures contract posted a new 4-month high during October, the contract fell back through the end of the month to close at 112-215, up 0-055 (0.15%) from September. The Fed fund futures forward curve (slide 5) was showing, at the end of October, the Fed fund rate range could be left between 3.75% and 4% at the conclusion of the December meeting (December 10). The December futures contract was priced at 96.225 putting the expected rate at 3.775%. Theoretical Positions: New longs might’ve been established near the November 2023 close of 109-150. Additional positions could’ve been established near the April 2024 close of 107-140. Another round of long positions could’ve been put in place during August 2024 as the ZN took out its Wave 1 high. Additional longs could be established near the November 2024 close, raising the overall position average to roughly 110-250. Investors could’ve added long positions on a move beyond the previous 4-month high of 111-155 (December) during March 2025. Sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of 110-085 (July 2025).
