The S&P 500 ($INX): The Index extended remains in a major (long-term) uptrend, closing November at 6,849.09, up 8.89 (0.13%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely still long, despite bearish technical patterns this past spring.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) extended its major uptrend to a high of 48,431.57 during November before closing at 47,716.42, up 153.55 (0.32%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely still long, despite bearish technical patterns this past spring.
The Nasdaq ($NASX) remains in a major uptrend, but could be losing bullish momentum after closing November at 23,365.69, down 359.27 (1.51%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve bought back into high-tech stocks in late April.
The US 10-year T-note (ZN): I’m going to continue to call the major trend sideways. The spot futures contract closed November at 113-135, up 0.67% for the month. The Fed fund futures forward curve (slide 5) was showing the Fed fund rate range could be cut by 25-basis points, to 3.5% to 3.75%, at the conclusion of the December meeting (December 10). The December futures contract was priced at 96.265 putting the expected rate at 3.7375%. Theoretical Positions: New longs might’ve been established near the November 2023 close of 109-150. Additional positions could’ve been established near the April 2024 close of 107-140. Another round of long positions could’ve been put in place during August 2024 as the ZN took out its Wave 1 high. Additional longs could be established near the November 2024 close, raising the overall position average to roughly 110-250. Investors could’ve added long positions on a move beyond the previous 4-month high of 111-155 (December) during March 2025. Sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of 110-235 (August 2025).
