The S&P 500 ($INX) extended its major (long-term) uptrend to a high of 7,002.28 before closing January at 6,939.03, up 93.53 (1.4%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are still long.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) extended its major uptrend to a high of 49,633.35 before closing January at 48,892.47, up 829.18 (1.7%) for the month. Theoretical Positions: Investors are still long.
The Nasdaq ($NASX) remains in a major uptrend, but continues to consolidate below its high of 24,019.99 from October 2025. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve bought back into high-tech stocks in late April.
The US 10-year T-note (ZN): I’m going to continue to call the major trend sideways. Theoretical Positions: Given the market continues to hold between uptrend and downtrend lines, investors are likely doing on of 2 things: 1) staying on the sidelines or 2) playing the converging trendlines. If the latter, then they would likely have gotten out of long positions and gone short last fall. The DNAI in-house algorithm showed an intermediate-term Short/Reduce position at the end of January.
The Fed Fund Futures Forward Curve shows the market is not expecting a rate cut at the conclusion of the March or April meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. At the end of the January meeting Fed Chairman Powell announced the range was unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. However, Mr. Powell’s term as Chairman expires in May, and the US president has already announced his choice for puppet to be the new chairman. As expected, the market is pricing in the next 25-basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the June meeting, the puppet’s first as Chair, with another cut expected in October.
