The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) uptrend. However, the Index did close lower at the end of February, down 60.15 points. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are still long.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) extended its major uptrend to a high of 50,512.79 before closing February at 48,977.92, up 85.48 (0.2%) for the month. Do we apply the Horseshoe Proximity and conclude this was close enough to complete a bearish spike reversal. For now, let’s be careful with the Dow. Theoretical Positions: Investors are still long.
The Nasdaq ($NASX) has turned sideways as it continues to consolidate below its high of 24,019.99 from October 2025 and above its low of 21,898.29 from November. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve bought back into high-tech stocks in late April, keeping on an eye on a break of the November 2025 low.
The US 10-year T-note (ZN): After months of waffling, I will say the US 10-year T-not market is in a major uptrend. This indicates traders are anticipating lower interest rates over time. However, the market has not taken out its October 2025 high, keeping an asterisk attached to thoughts of trend. Theoretical Positions: The DNAI in-house algorithm showed an intermediate-term Long/Neutral position at the end of February.
The Fed Fund Futures Forward Curve shows the market is not expecting a rate cut at the conclusion of the March, April, of June meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. At the end of the January meeting Fed Chairman Powell announced the range was unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. Mr. Powell’s term as Chairman expires in May, and the US president has already announced his choice for a new chairman. The market has pushed back the next 25-basis point rate cut until the conclusion of the July meeting with another cut expected in October.
