The S&P 500 ($INX) had a bearish first quarter (January through March), closing March at 6,528.52, down 316.98 points (4.6%) from last December’s settlement. Also note the Index completed a bearish key reversal on its quarterly chart indicating the major (long-term) trend has turned down. Theoretical Positions: Investors are likely moving money to other sectors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) closed 1,721.78 points (3.6%) lower for the quarter, also completing a key bearish reversal on its long-term quarterly chart. Theoretical Positions: Investors are likely moving money to other sectors.
The Nasdaq ($NASX) closed 1,651.36 points (7.1%) lower for the quarter. Theoretical Positions: Investors are likely moving money to other sectors.
The US 10-year T-note (ZN): I am still not getting a good read on the major trend of the 10-year T-note. After posting what looked to be a bullish breakout during February, the market completed a bearish outside month during March. Theoretical Positions: Investors are likely on the sidelines as March came to an end.
The Fed Fund Futures Forward Curve shows the market is not expecting a change in the Fed fund rate through the end of 2026. However, there was a lot of movement in the curve during March, at one point both the October and November futures contracts indicating a rate hike this fall. We’ll see what happens during April.
