December Corn: Dec25 completed a bullish spike reversal during August (2024 and 2025). If the market is in a major (long-term) sideways trend, then a move toward the high end near $4.80 would be expected over the coming months. It’s likely Dec25 established the high-end of a potential major (long-term) sideways range back in February at $4.7975, similar to what occurred during the winter of 2014-2015. Recall that sideways pattern would last through the fall of 2020. If Dec corn is in a new major sideways trend with a high-end near $4.80, the low end would be the August 2024 low of $3.8550. The range back in 2014 to 2020 was from the low near $3.20 (September and October 2014) through the highs near $4.20. Dec25 closed October at $4.3150, up 16.0 cents for the month.
Theoretical Positions:
- Hedgers:
- See Weekly Analysis: Grains (both Futures and Cash)
- Investors:
- Long Dec25 futures from $4.2650 were rolled to Dec26 futures at 2.0 cents carry on Friday, January 31
- Dec25 could’ve been sold at roughly $4.6025
- a gain of approximately 21.5 cents
- in addition to the gain of about 12.0 cents on the previous Dec24 long futures position
- a gain of approximately 21.5 cents
- Dec26 could’ve been bought at roughly $4.6225
- Dec25 could’ve been sold at roughly $4.6025
- Long Dec25 futures from $4.2650 were rolled to Dec26 futures at 2.0 cents carry on Friday, January 31
- The bottom line is long-term Investors will want to still be long Dec corn based on the bullish spike reversal at the end of August 2024 on the continuous monthly chart confirming the end of the previous long-term downtrend from May 2022 (See Monthly Analysis). At the end of July the investment position would be approximately:
- Short Dec25 near $4.61 based on a number of short-term option trades
- If not done already (see Weekly Analysis), these positions would be bought back near the August close of $4.2025 for a gain of roughly 40 cents.
- Long Dec25 $4.20 calls at 20 cents
- using half the gains from previous short option positions
- These options closed October at 13 1/8 cents
- Last trading day for the Dec options is November 21
- These will either be sold, or Dec25 futures shorted to offset in the money option positions
- Long Dec26 near $4.6225
- Dec26 closed October at $4.6350
- Short Dec25 near $4.61 based on a number of short-term option trades
November Soybeans: October saw the Nov25 futures contract break out of the major sideways trend it has been in since August 2024. However, with the nearby contract in delivery, investors will move positions to the 2026 issue. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors may have had buy stops above the previous Nov25 4-month high of $10.7425, the equivalent in Nov26 at $10.88. Sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of $10.3750 from August. Nov26 closed October at $11.06.
Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN) is also in a major sideways trend. However, CORN did complete a bullish outside month during October, possibly sparking another round of buying interest. Theoretical Positions: CORN could’ve been bought near the August 2024 settlement of $17.70. Additional longs could be established on buy stops above the previous 4-month high of $18.85 during January. A new round of buys could be made near the October settlement of $17.79. If so, then the average position would be near $18.12.
The Teucrium Soybean Fund (SOYB) confirmed a major uptrend during October as it moved to a new 4-month high beyond $22.65 from June. Theoretical Positions: Investors might’ve bought near the December settlement of $21.48 with sell stops below the December low of $20.20. Some may have added long positions near the April settlement of $21.47. Additional longs could be added near the October settlement, creating an average price of $22.13. SOYB closed October at $23.14.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) completed a bullish spike reversal, confirming a move to a major uptrend. Theoretical Positions: Investors could buy WEAT near the October settlement of $4.24 with a sell stop below the October low of $3.99.
