The monthly chart for the cmdty National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) shows the market could be getting top heavy after hitting a lofty peak of $8.63 during November. The final monthly calculation of $8.1156 Tuesday afternoon was far enough off the high for monthly stochastics to establish a bearish crossover above the overbought level of 80%, a signal the major (long-term) trend is due for a change. As of this writing it’s hard to picture what a reversal pattern to confirm a new major downtrend might look like, particularly with the previous 4-month low down at $6.4525 (September 2021, red dashed line). If still holding cash HRW wheat, near $8.00 is an attractive level to let at least some go.
