Cash Corn: For comparison purposes, I’m using the DTN Corn Index this month because it has a longer track record than the Barchart National Corn Price Index. Here we see the cash corn index posting a new all-time high monthly close of $8.001, use above the previous mark of $7.973 from July 2012. If you’ve read the monthly Supply and Demand commentary, this is one of the reasons why I’m working on changing my stocks-to-use studies. Based on the near 100% correlation I’ve shown between cash prices and available stocks-to-use, the fact the DTN Corn Index closed at a new all-time high (monthly close only) tells us available stocks-to-use in the US were record tight at the end of April. My new study shows a figure of 7.1% as compared to my standard study of 8.4%.
New-crop December Corn: The 2022 contract extended the major (long-term) uptrend on the Dec corn only continuous monthly chart to a high of $7.57 during April. From a technical point of view there could be another $1.00 or more remaining in this move, with one set of pattern analysis putting a high-end target at $8.76. This would seem to be supported by bullish long-term fundamentals indicated by the weak carry in the Dec2022-to-Jul23 forward curve. Yes, the forward curve weakened slightly during April as early planting was seen across parts of the US Plains. The Dec contract is sharply overbought with monthly stochastics above 90%. However, as long as long-term fundamentals remain bullish it will be difficult to break the market back.
Cash Soybeans: Similar to corn (and Chicago SRW wheat), I’m using the DTN Soybean Index this month because it has a longer track record than the Barchart National Corn Price Index. The end of April saw the DTN Index calculated at $16.45, drawing closer to the all-time high monthly close of $17.31 from August 2012. Again, based on my new studies the month-end calculation of US available stocks-to-use came in at a more logical 2.4%, slightly larger than the all-time low for the end of a marketing year of 2.0% during 2011-2012.
New-crop November Soybeans: The November 2022 contract posted a bullish outside range during April, putting it position to test its high of $15.5750 durning May. If we just look at monthly closes, April’s figure of $15.1475 was the highest since $15.47 posted at the end of October 2012. Fundamentally new-crop soybeans remain bullish, with the Nov22-to-Jul23 forward curve closing at an inverse of 17.5 cents. While this was weaker than the March close of 33.0 cents inverse, the pressure was likely tied to sporadic planting progress, but planting progress nonetheless.