Live Cattle (Cash Index): The live cattle cash index may be moving toward a major (long-term) downtrend after posting what looks to be a double-top during July. The index hit a high of $190, equaling the mark from June 2023, before closing at its high for the month. A double-top would be confirmed with a move below the previous 4-month low of $181. Theoretical Positions: Hedgers likely rolled put options up during the previous major uptrend and sold cash as needed. Cash cattle could continue to be sold.
Feeder Cattle (Cash Index): The index extended its major uptrend to a high of $261.88 during July before closing at $258.69, up $0.90 for the month. This was enough to keep the index from completing a bearish spike reversl. Theoretical Positions: As with live cattle, hedgers have likely continued to roll put options up and sell cash.
Lean Hogs (Cash Index): I’m still not seeing anything concrete with the lean hog cash index other than an extended series of lower highs and lower lows. By definition this is a downtrend, though the index posted a bullish outside range during July. Theoretical Positions: Cash hogs could continued to be sold.
