Brent crude (QA) confirmed a new major (long-term) downtrend as it fell to a new 4-month low of $94.50 during July. this followed the bearish spike reversal posted during June and the most recent bearish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% at the end of July 2021 (interesting it has already been a year). What makes Brent crude a difficult read is that technically it could be argued it also completed a 3-wave downtrend during July, though Wave B (second wave) and Wave C (third wave) would’ve occurred in successive months. This isn’t usually the case. Making the technical read more difficult is the continued long-term bullish fundamentals indicated by the market’s inverted forward curve.

WTI crude oil chart is showing a similar patter to Brent crude in that it took out its previous 4-month low of $94.45 as it fell to $90.56 during July. Theoretically this should open the door to a larger seasonal selloff, though this could prove difficult given the market’s long-term bullish supply and demand situation indicated by a strong inverse in WTI’s forward curve. From an investor point of view, crude oil would be difficult to hold a position, though some may have sold as it took out support this past month. Buy orders could be sitting just above the June high of $123.68.

Unlike the crude oil markets, distillates (heating oil, jet fuel, diesel fuel, etc.) did not post a new 4-month low during July with the mark now at $3.1891 (April low) heading into August. While the market is indicating a potential major downtrend, it has not confirmed such a patter, and its long-term fundamentals remain bullish given the forward curve continues to show a strong inverse. Theoretically I could say distillates remains in major sideways trend as it stays within the range posted this past April. This tells us the market could post a clearer breakout once August comes to an end.

RBOB gasoline extended its recently established major downtrend to a low of $3.0248 during July before posting a solid really to close at $3.4881. This leaves the door open to a big move in either direction with initial support down at the 4-month low of $2.9867 while a rally could result in the June high of $4.3260. Such a test would be considered a Wave B (second wave) move of the 3-wave downtrend, and would be somewhat contra-seasonal given the market tends to move lower through mid to late December. As with crude oil and distillates, RBOB’s fundamentals remain long-term bullish based on the the market’s inverted forward curve.

The natural gas monthly chart is one of the wildest I’ve seen in roughly 35 years of analyzing markets. Recall the market posted an impressive bearish key reversal during June, only to follow with an even more incredible bullish key reversal during July. I have no idea which direction this market will go next, so I will enjoy my view as a spectator from the cheap seats.