The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $7.6343 during July, a sharp sell off for the month but holding above the target of $7.1520. This price marks the 61.8% reteracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.4047 (September 2019) through the high of $13.2145 (May 2022). Given Kansas City futures spreads remain bullish, the HWPI might’ve established the Wave A (first wave) low during July, setting the stage for a possible Wave B (second wave) rally. If she, the upside target area is between $9.7659 and $10.4244.
Similar to the HWPI, the Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) extended its major downtrend to a low of $6.9561 during July. This dropped it just below the downside target of $7.0631, the 61.8% retracement level of the previous uptrend from $3.8661 (May 2019) through the high of $12.2351 (May 2022). While the July low may have been the bottom of Wave A, the SWPI finished the month within sight of the monthly low, leaving the door open to renewed pressure to start August.
As with the other wheat indexes, the Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) extended its major downtrend to a low of $8.0571 before closing the month within sight of its low. Like the winter markets the HSPI could see a Wave B rally develop, and if so the index could eventually test $10.12. However, the month of August will see spring wheat harvest move across the Northern Plains, likely bringing an initial round of pressure to the cash market.
