The Barchart National Corn Price Index (NCPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of new 4-month low of $6.4725 during July before rallying into the end of the month. This leaves the NCPI in no-man’s land as it could extend its rally to near the July high of $7.44 or take out the July low on its way to the first downside target near $6.02. Fundamentally the market remains bullish, both short-term national average basis and long-term futures spreads, factors that could limit selling interest. Still, from a technical point of view the NCPI should eventually test the downside target area between $6.02 and $5.39.
New-crop December Corn: The 2022 contract extended its major downtrend to a low of $5.6350 during July before recovering to close at $6.20. It’s interesting to note the close was 0.25 cent higher for the month, technically completing a bullish spike reversal indicating the market is set to move into a Wave 2 rally with an upside target area between $6.65 and $6.89. Seasonally it could be argued the 2022 contract is set for a rally, possibly last through through the end of September at least, bringing the 2023 issue onto stage at roughly 40 cents discount to 2022.
The Barchart National Soybean Price Index (NSPI, intrinsic value of the market) posted a new 4-month low of $14.2613 during July before rallying to finish the month at $16.1243. This put it 21.85 cents higher for the month and completed a bullish spike reversal, setting the stage for a possible test of the June high of $17.3377 over the coming months. Unfortunately, I’m getting conflicting results from the monthly chart for the DTN National Soybean Index that closed roughly 48 cents lower for the month. I’ll talk more about this in Monthly Supply and Demand Commentary.
New-crop November Soybeans: The November 2022 contract gives me a bit more confidence in the NSPI given the continuous monthly chart for Nov contracts only shows a similar bullish spike reversal pattern. After falling to a low of $12.8850 during July, November 2022 rallied to close the month at $14.6850, up 10.5 cents from June’s close of $14.58. This opens the door for a test of the June high of $15.8475 over the coming months, a move that would be supported by bullish long-term fundamentals indicated by futures spreads showing at worst weak carries with most inverted. November is vulnerable to the Chaos event of China moving against Taiwan in the not-too-distant future.