Brent crude (QA) longs to have confirmed a major (long-term) uptrend during March. The spot-month contract completed a bullish spike reversal, confirming the bullish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% at the end of October 2024. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors could go long near the March close of $74.74 with a sell stop below the March low of $68.34.
WTI crude oil (CL) remains in a major sideways trend, despite the market’s backwardated forward curve.his structure of a sideways trend and bullish fundamentals has been in place for months. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines for now.
Distillates (HO, heating oil, diesel fuel, jet fuel, etc.): The market looks to have moved into a major uptrend with a clear break of the previous 4-month high of $2.4183 during January. Theoretical Positions: Traders might have bought on the bullish breakout, with sell stops below the previous low of $2.0431. The spot-month contract closed March at $2.3140, down fractionally for the month.
RBOB gasoline (RB) is in a major uptrend. The monthly chart seems to have been revised with February activity now showing a new 4-month high. Theoretical Positions: Traders might’ve bought on the new 4-month high near $2.1753 during February. If so, sell stops would be below the previous 4-month low of $1.8949. The spot-month contract closed at $2.2831, up 0.0608 cents for the month.
Natural gas (NG) remains in a major uptrend. Theoretical Positions: Traders might’ve gone long on the bullish breakout above $2.168 during May 2024. Additional long positions may have been established above the May high of $2.924 during June. Additional longs may have been added near the August close of $2.127 based on the spot-month contract completing a bullish spike reversal, indicating a Wave 2 low. Another set of long positions might’ve been added during February as the spot-month contract took auto the January high of $4.369. If so, then the average long position would be roughly $2.897 with sell stops below the previous 4-month low of $2.977 from December 2024.
