The S&P 500 ($INX) remains in a major (long-term) 5-wave uptrend, extending the move during July to 4,607.07. After 5 consecutive higher monthly closes, the S&P would be expected to take a breather at some point. Theoretical Positions: Long from the October 2022 close of 3,871.98 with a stop below the April 2023 low of 4,049.45.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) remains in a major 5-wave uptrend, extending the move during July to 35,645.35. Theoretical Positions: Long from at least the October 2022 settlement of 32,732.95 if not the breakout of the September high at 32,504.04. Stops would be placed below the 4-month low of 32,586.56 from May 2023.
The Nasdaq ($NASX) extended its major uptrend to a high of 14,446.55 during July. The $NASX posted its highest monthly close (13,787.92) since December 2021 (15,644.97). Theoretical Positions: Long from the October 2022 close of 10,988.15 with a stop below the April 2023 low of 11,798.98.
The US 10-year T-note (ZN) looks to have moved into a major sideways trend within the March 2023 range from 109-315 to 117-015. The nearby futures contract hit a low of 110-050 during July. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible longs might’ve been established at the November 2022 close of 113-070 based on monthly stochastics and a possible 2-month reversal. Additional longs could’ve been established when the ZN took out the high of 116-080. If so, the average long would be roughly 114.575. Stops would be placed below the July low of 110-050.
Gold (Cash Index): The cash index still looks to be in a major downtrend after completing a bearish key reversal during May. However, there has been little selling interest since with the index continuing to consolidate and monthly stochastics hold below the overbought level of 80%. Theoretical Positions: Traders could liquidate longs established at the November 2022 close of $1,768.09 near the May settlement of $1,962.56 (gain of $194.47). Short positions could’ve been established at the same price, with a buy stop above the May high of $2,059.31 (risk of $96.75).