The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) completed its major (long-term) 3-wave downtrend and rolled into a 5-wave uptrend during March. This was done as the HWPI completed a bullish spike reversal that took out the previous low of $7.6159 (August 2022). The initial upside target is now near $9.59. Theoretical Positions: Short positions from the October settlement of $9.3258 would be covered near the March close of $8.5366. New long positions could also be established, with sell stops below the March low of $7.3522.
The Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) extended its major downtrend to a low of $6.0188 during March. If we apply the Horseshoe Proximity, then the March close of $6.3359 (down 4.42 cents for the month) could be considered the completion of a bullish spike reversal. Monthly stochastics completed a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% as well indicating the major trend should be turning up. Theoretical Positions: Traders could go long near the March settlement of $6.3359. If so, stops would be placed below the March low. However, given neutral-to-bearish fundamental reads, others may wait for a clear reversal pattern before going long.
The Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) completed its major 3-wave downtrend with a bullish spike reversal during March. Theoretical Positions: Short positions from the October settlement of $9.0518 would be covered near the March close of $8.3864 and new long positions established. Sell stops would be placed below the March low of $7.6073.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) looks similar to the Chicago (SRW) cash market in that it didn’t quite complete a bullish spike reversal during March. However, monthly stochastics did establish a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% meaning some traders might apply the Horseshoe Proximity to WEAT given it only closed 9.0 cents lower for the month. Theoretical Positions: It’s possible short positions were covered near the March close of $7.06 and new longs established. If so, sell stops would be placed below the March low of $6.66 (an ominous price).