The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) continued to consolidate during July after posting a bullish outside range during May. The index remains oversold with stochastics establishing a bullish crossover at the end of June. Theoretical Positions: The potential for a major uptrend would suggest holding cash HRW wheat as harvested this summer. Sell stops would be placed below the May low of $7.0373.
The Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) looks to be moving toward a manor uptrend. Monthly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of June. Theoretical Positions: None at this time. Those wanting to go long will wait for a clear reversal pattern. The new 4-month high is the June mark of $7.1228. Based on bearish fundamentals, the SWPI could fall back to between $5.5450 and the May low of $5.1154.
The Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) confirmed a new major uptrend with a move beyond the previous 4-month high of $8.65 during July. This confirmed the bullish crossover by monthly stochastics below the oversold level of 20% at the end of June. The initial upside target area is between $9.56 and $10.31. Theoretical Positions: Cash bushels could be held as the 2023 harvest begins. Support is at the 4-month low of $7.1558 (May 2023).
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) looks to be moving toward a major uptrend. Monthly stochastics established a bullish crossover below the oversold level of 20% at the end of June. Theoretical Positions: None at this time. Those wanting to go long will wait for a clear reversal pattern, most likely a move to a new 4-month high beyond $7.43 (May 2023).
