The Barchart National HRW Wheat Price Index (HWPI, weighted national average cash price) extended its major (long-term) downtrend to a low of $5.8669 during September and closed at that mark. The index continues to move lower despite monthly stochastics showing an extremely oversold situation. Theoretical Positions: Remaining cash bushels were likely sold during the August selloff.
The Barchart National SRW Wheat Price Index (SWPI) extended its major downtrend to a low of $4.5297 before closing September near that mark. Monthly stochastics show the index to be sharply oversold. However, with Chicago futures spreads still showing incredibly bearish fundamentals it will be difficult for the cash market to rally. Theoretical Positions: All 2023 cash bushels should be sold.
The Barchart National HRS Wheat Price Index (HSPI) extended its major downtrend to a low of $6.0958 during September and closed the month at that mark. Theoretical Positions: Cash bushels should be sold as harvested despite monthly stochastics sitting well below the oversold level of 20%.
The Teucrium Wheat Fund (WEAT) looks to have moved back into a major downtrend as it took out the previous low of $5.88, falling to $5.55 during September. This could be nothing more than a normal wheat head-fake, but with the Chicago market’s incredibly bearish fundamentals there is no reason to be long. Theoretical Positions: None at this time.