The Law of Supply and Demand: Market Price is the point where the quantity demanded equals quantities available creating a market equilibrium. If we consider the three variables in the equation (Market Price = Supply, Demand) the only one known is Market Price. Therefore, a study of Market Price is all that is needed to understand the relationship between the unknown variables of Supply and Demand. For Market Price I’m using National Cash Indexes for the 5 major grain markets.
CORN: The National Corn Index was priced at $3.9375 at the end of October, as compared to end of September figure of $3.7318 and last October’s $3.8226. The previous 5-year end of October average price was $4.9243 with the 5-year end of October low at $3.7843. The 10-year end of October average price was at $4.1283. The October 2025 price put the Index in the lower 26% of its 5-year price distribution range based on weekly closes only. The bottom line is the Index shows supplies remain abundant in relation to demand. However, 2025-2026 futures spreads continue to cover less calculated full commercial carry (slide 2), based on weekly closes, indicating the long-term commercial view is growing more bullish.
SOYBEANS: The National Soybean Index was priced at $10.3372 at the end of October, as compared to end of September figure of $9.2034 and last October’s $9.2929. The previous 5-year end of October average price was $11.4831 with the 5-year end of October low at $9.2929 (2024). The 10-year end of October average price was at $7.4447. The October 2025 price put the Index in the upper 40% of its 10-year price distribution range based on weekly closes only. The bottom line, if we choose to believe it, is US soybean supply and demand grew more bullish during October. Futures spreads saw a dramatic cut to the percent of calculated full commercial carry (slide 3), based on weekly closes, this past month.
SRW WHEAT: The National SRW Wheat Index was priced at $4.7182 at the end of October, as compared to end of September figure of $4.3784 and last October’s $5.0545. The previous 5-year end of October low price was $4.9267 with the 10-year end of October average price at $5.2921. The bottom line is the October 2025 figure is now the new 5-year low meaning US supply and demand was more bearish at the end of the month than the previous timeframe. The October 2025 price put the Index in the lower 7% of its 5-year price distribution range based on weekly closes only (slide 4).
HRW WHEAT: The National HRW Wheat Index was priced at $4.5589 at the end of October, as compared to end of September figure of $4.2156 and last October’s $5.1174. The previous 5-year end of October low price was 2024’s $5.1174 with the 10-year end of October average price at $5.2424. The bottom line is the October 2025 figure is now the new 5-year low meaning US supply and demand was more bearish at the end of the month than the previous timeframe. The October 2025 price put the Index in the lower 10% of its 5-year price distribution range based on weekly closes only (slide 5).
HRS WHEAT: The National HRS Wheat Index was priced at $5.24 at the end of October, as compared to end of September figure of $5.0956 and last October’s $5.6448. The previous 5-year end of October low price was $5.2322 with the 10-year end of October average price was at $6.2673. The bottom line is US HRS supply is basically as bearish as it has been over the past 5 years.
