Cotton (CTY00, Cash Index): The cotton market remains in a major (long-term) sideways trend. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve bought on the move to a new 4-month high of 67.43 during June. If so, then sell stops would be below the September 2025 low of 63.14. The index closed September at 63.77, down 0.19 for the month.
Coffee (KCY00, Cash Index): The Index spiked to a new high of 448.24 during September before closing at 387.99, down 27.02 (6.5%) for the month. The Index still looks to be in a major downtrend based on an Elliott Wave 3-wave downtrend pattern. . Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors might’ve gone short the market on sell stops below the previous 4-month low of 362.37. Additional short positions could be established near the September settlement.
Cocoa (CCY00, Cash Index): The Index extended is major downtrend to a low of 6,682 during September before closing at 6,749, down 886 (11.6%) for the month. Meanwhile, the futures market’s forward curve remains in strong backwardation indicating a long-term bullish supply and demand situation. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors are likely on the sidelines in cocoa. If holding short positions, buy stops would be above the previous 4-month high of 10,531 (June 2025).
Sugar (SBY00, Cash Index): After extending its major downtrend to a low of 15.20 during September, the Index completed another bullish spike reversal by closing at 16.60, up 0.26 for the month. Once again, the Index looks to have moved into a major uptrend, though it has recently struggled finding follow-through buying interest. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors, stopped out of previous long positions, could try it agin near the September settlement. Or just stay on the sidelines, looking at other markets.
Orange Juice (OJY00, Cash Index): The Index completed a bullish key reversal during July, following a similar pattern completed this past April, the former coinciding with a bullish crossover by monthly stochastics. This means the index both signaled (stochastics) and confirmed (key reversal pattern) a new major uptrend. This was followed by consolidation during August and September. Theoretical Positions: Long-term investors bought back short positions near the April close of 272.50 and went long at the same price. It’s possible sell stops below the April low of 211.90 were triggered during July before another buy was signaled at the end of the month.
